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Health · FitnessLive recipe

Predict your 5K race time from sleep and steps alone.

No run data. No fitness test. No code. Connect your favourite LLM to the jitm.ai MCP, point it at your Garmin export, and ask it to build you a model. Lands within roughly thirty seconds.

±34s
MAE
Mean absolute error
0.605
15-fold CV
±47s
RMSE
Root mean sq.
12
Features
Lifestyle only
1,228
Days
2022 – 2026
00 / What you'll see

A model that lives in your dashboard.

JITM.ai dashboard showing the trained Garmin 5K Predictor model with R² 0.605
The trained model in your jitm.ai dashboard — R² 0.605, 40.6% more accurate than guessing the average.
01 / The story

Could a model read your fitness from a watch?

Modern fitness watches collect dozens of signals every day. Steps. Sleep stages. Resting heart rate. Heart rate variability. Floors climbed. Garmin uses some of these to compute a race-time estimate, but it leans heavily on your running history. If you don't run, you don't get a number.

We wanted to see if a model could close that gap. Could it look at the everyday lifestyle signals, the ones every wearable collects, run or no run, and produce a credible race-time estimate? We took fourteen years of one runner's Garmin export, kept only the daily lifestyle metrics, and asked jitm.ai to find the relationship.

“Twelve everyday inputs predicted a 5K race time within ~30 seconds. Reads like a sports-science textbook, not a feature-engineering trick.”

The top signals it leaned on are the ones a coach would name: basal metabolic rate, resting heart rate, heart rate variability. Real physiology, not data archaeology.

And because the model is yours, you can schedule it. Wire a Claude Code agent to pull yesterday's metrics every morning, call your model, and append the prediction to a log. Over weeks, the line moves. You can finally see, in seconds, whether your sleep choices, your stress, your travel, are nudging your fitness up or down. Your data, your model, your trend line.

02 / Under the hood

What the model leaned on, and how it was trained.

Feature importance chart from JITM showing top features ranked
Feature importance — basal metabolic rate, resting heart rate, HRV. Reads like a sports-science textbook.
JITM Phase 2 ensemble visualization showing 135-model bagged ensemble
Phase 2 — a 135-model ensemble across XGBoost, LightGBM, and GLM, blended by hill-climbing selection.
03 / Reproduce it

Two paths. The easy one needs no code.

1
Export your Garmin data

Request a full export from Garmin's data management page. An email arrives in a few hours with a zip file. Unzip it anywhere on your computer.

2
Connect the jitm.ai MCP to your favourite LLM

Add the JITM MCP server (https://mcp.jitm.ai) to Claude, Cursor, Claude Code, or ChatGPT. The LLM does an OAuth handshake with your jitm.ai account, no API keys to copy around. Then just talk to it.

ChatClaude · MCP: jitm.ai
You
My Garmin export is unzipped at ~/Downloads/garmin. Build me the 5K predictor from the jitm-examples recipe.
Reading your export and flattening to a daily CSV (14 years of data, 2,242 days). Selecting the 12 lifestyle features.
jitm_request_uploadjitm_confirm_uploadjitm_create_model
Done. Your model predicts 5K race time with a mean error of ±34 seconds on a 15-fold cross-validation. R² is 0.605. Top three features were basal metabolic rate, resting heart rate, and HRV. Open the dashboard?
3
Schedule a daily prediction

Ask the LLM: “Schedule a daily run that pulls yesterday's Garmin metrics and predicts my 5K, then append it to a log.” The LLM will use the daily_refresh.py script bundled with the recipe. Schedule it via Claude Code's /schedule, a cron job, or a routine in your preferred runtime. Every morning you get a fresh prediction. Over weeks, the line moves.

ScheduleDaily · 08:00 local
2026-05-20 → predicted 5K: 22:48 (4:34/km) · resting HR 52 · HRV 68 · sleep score 81
Appended to predictions_log.csv
Want the scripts and the full code path?
Clone the repo. The bundled Python scripts give you offline-friendly, deterministic control.
View on GitHub →
Honest notes

Build one with your data.

Bring a CSV. Health, finance, ops, anything with a column you want to predict. The platform handles the engineering. The recipe shows you the rest.